Predictive Modeling


Client challenge

The client was seeking innovative data-driven solutions to identify clients’ trade interests through the use of predictive models and a machine learning feedback loop.  In particular the client sought to:

  • Assess and prioritize opportunities for business development
  • Maximize the deal values by anticipating the end-clients’ needs more efficiently
  • Provide customized offers to strengthen end-client relationships


How we helped
  • We combined internal data (e.g., transaction history, inventory lists, client holdings, etc.) and market data (e.g., interest rates, currency fluctuations, market volatility, etc.)
  • We applied predictive analytic techniques to identify clients most likely to be interested in trading specific products in the bank’s portfolio
  • We built a user feedback loop to continually update the process to identify better opportunities


Fulcrum effectively prioritized end-clients and provided a matching engine to allow the client to stay competitive in the market.


Client challenge
A regional bank’s Human Resources (HR) group was seeking a solution to incorporate market and competitive data to improve personnel evaluation and optimize resource planning.


How we helped
  • We integrated external data (e.g., publicly available competitor data, footprint demographics, etc.) with internal data (e.g., staff experience, branch performance, etc.) and developed new data elements on branch-level market share
  • We created a deposit growth segmentation to benchmark branch growth and market penetration, controlling as many factors as available, excluding manager talent
  • Lastly, we performed branch performance forecasting for each segment


Fulcrum streamlined the ability to identify exceptional managers, which impacted compensation formulas and recruiting efforts, and also enabled optimized resource planning through forecasting.


Client challenge
The client was looking to improve customer engagement among advisory customers with a process to deliver personalized email driven by customers’ digital behavior and advisory content consumption. The content was not classified which made personalized recommendations difficult.  


How we helped
  • We scraped PDF and web pages from its microsites
  • We categorized the content using Natural Language Processing (NLP) based on terms and phrases found in the subject matter
  • We modeled topic relevancy for each customer and mapped it to the content library
  • We scored the content so that the most relevant articles could be recommended to each customer via personalized email campaigns using the matching algorithms


Fulcrum enabled the deployment of a customized content delivery system to increase engagement with high value customers.


Client challenge

The client needed help flagging fraudulent medical insurance claims. The goal was to:

  • Determine logic to flag suspicious behavior and identify providers of interest
  • Leverage billing data to analyze suspicious providers


How we helped
  • We performed fuzzy matching to link multiple claim records to the same provider(s)
  • We used geocoding to create physical distance calculations between providers and between providers and claimants
  • We applied statistical methods (e.g., logistic ridge regression with sparse matrices, T-Score calculation, bootstrapping, etc.) to billing data to build propensity scoring models to rule claims as valid or invalid
  • Based on our modeling results, we created the fraud flagging logic to identify suspicious behavior and providers of interest
  • The team collaborated with the investigative unit, billing unit, and legal unit to create a provider fraud action plan


Fulcrum's data preparation procedures and predictive analytical models provided the quantitative basis for the provider fraud action plan.

Client challenge
  • The client sought to build and enact a relationship marketing operation that would increase sales revenue and profit from existing customer relationships
  • To enable this strategy, the client needed help developing a powerful customer segmentation and predictive modeling toolset
How we helped
  • We built and implemented a multi-dimensional segmentation solution that assigned customer households into unique segments and sub-segments based on relationship cycle, purchase behaviors, value contribution and demographics
  • We also built and implemented a relationship marketing experimental design environment to support sophisticated and accelerated testing that aimed to increase customer value, sales revenue, and profit from direct marketing investments
Fulcrum built and implemented a multi-dimensional segmentation and experimental design solution that enabled the client to test and refine its relationship marketing strategy, resulting in increased revenue, profit, and customer value.


Client challenge

A Fulcrum client wanted to measure a mass media campaign’s impact on new customer acquisition at the local and store level.

The challenge was measuring advertising impact at the local and store level, as each market included in the campaign had stores with varying performance levels, competitive pressures, and demographic compositions.


How we helped
  • We built matched control groups at the store and market levels by matching stores in treated markets with comparable stores in untreated markets, based on a number of relevant criteria
  • We calculated the results of the campaign’s impact at the local market level as well as aggregated for total campaign performance
  • The finely matched control group process allowed forresult measurement by other important dimensions such as store format, population density, and proximity to competitors


Fulcrum’s quasi-experimental design allowed for macro and micro level results analysis.


Client challenge

The client sought to retain an at-risk multi-million dollar portfolio.  In an effort to find a solution, the client needed help with insurance claims data analysis identifying risk drivers and preventing losses.  In particular the client wanted to utilize their massive amount of unstructured adjusters’ notes to bring more detail-rich information to the risk consulting team aiming to prevent loss and reduce costs, and to identify additional risk drivers to support ongoing pricing strategy.

The key challenge was the inability to process massive amount of unstructured data (i.e., adjusters’ notes), limiting opportunities to quickly generate insights.


How we helped
  • We performed Natural Language Processing (NLP) on their unstructured adjusters' notes data including Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) and topic modeling (LDA)
  • We enriched the input data to the pricing models through text mining that led to increased prediction accuracy
  • We developed an interactive risk analytics tool to deliver loss and cost insights


Fulcrum helped the client with enhanced coverage insights and pricing inputs through the introduction Natural Language Processing on unstructured data.


Client challenge
The client was seeking to apply predictive models to improve its rating structure, moving away from subjective rating. Key challenges included:

  • Highly subjective rating process based on individual underwriter's experience, without data-driven guidelines
  • Lack of experience and resources evaluating external data sources

Furthermore, the client wanted to explore options to incorporate and build machine learning into the rating structure


How we helped
  • We identified pricing key drivers through LASSO regression
  • We developed a statistical model (using GLM) that was implemented for predictive ratings scoring
  • We used advanced techniques (including GBM, Random Forest, etc.) to improve model performance
  • We created benchmarking models with SVM and NN to ensure model performance (i.e., how close the model can perform when compared with a simulated one without restrictions)


Fulcrum’s data-driven rating structure standardized future underwriting and increased pricing transparency.


Client challenge
The client needed to accomplish faster and more accurate decisions in making personalized offers. Fulcrum applied its experience in digital coupon operations to solve the business problem.


How we helped

The client partnered with Fulcrum to utilize our hosted computing platform, Digital Fusion.

  • Digital Fusion collected data across all channels and sources (POS, display ad, email campaign, web traffic) and created hundreds of micro-segments of customers with similar buying behavior
  • The platform deployed stochastic frontier models for each segment to identify winnable shares for each product category
  • Then Digital Fusion computed the optimal personalized offers based on purchase, coupon redemption, and digital behavior data


Fulcrum's unification of behavioral and marketing data with predictive models produced granular personalized offers to drive more trips, bigger baskets, and higher margins.

Pens and coins on top of paper

Client challenge

A regional financial services company was seeking:

  • A database marketing partner to help improve the efficiency of its acquisition of Home Equity Line of Credit customers
  • In-depth testing of new creative and informed targeting to reduce the number of total mail pieces while holding responses and conversions at existing levels
How we helped
  • Through the analysis of existing customer data, we built a model to predict which customer households were most likely to respond to outreach and be approved for a line of credit offer
  • Produced dashboard and ad hoc reports to bring transparency to campaign summary metrics, campaign response details, and financial details for each campaign

Fulcrum utilized past campaign response data to build a predictive model that improved campaign ROI, and created the accompanying reports to enable transparency into campaign performance and faster decision making.


Client challenge

The client was seeking support in evaluating various clinical programs. Key challenges included:

  • Many clinical programs were operating without a randomized control group
  • Historical evaluations were done in a time consuming and ad-hoc fashion
  • There was a lack of consistency in evaluation scope and methodology across different clinical programs
  • All of the above made it difficult to track changes and updates


How we helped
  • We built matched control groups at the patient levels by matching patients enrolled in certain clinical programs with comparable patients who were not enrolled, based on a number of relevant criteria
  • We calculated various outcome metrics to evaluate the program’s impact at the patient level
  • The finely matched control group process allowed for result measurement by other important dimensions such as severity of illness, market, etc.
  • We developed automated scripts to reduce labor hours for future updates


Fulcrum's quasi-experimental design process allowed for program result measurement where there was no hold-out control group. We also developed automated scripts to increase consistency in methodology and reduce labor hours for future program measurement.


Client challenge

A pricing software company used a process of measuring sales lift from its in-store marketing collateral service, but sought an expert review of its test design and measurement process.

They were seeking:

  • A deep evaluation of their statistical methodology used to calculate lift
  • An assessment of its client deliverables and claims about lift and significance
  • Recommendations on a more efficient and standardized measurement process


How we helped
  • Fulcrum independently created a matched control group design and performed the sales lift analysis without reference to the analysis already conducted
  • The matched control group parameters were tested for sensitivity, and all data was checked for quality
  • We compared our results to the original results and documented recommended improvements in sampling and experimental design


Fulcrum independently validated the measured outcomes, provided more granular insights, and suggested process improvements.